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Bangladesh
still remains an agrarian country. Because of the fast
population growth, the amount of per capita cultivable land is
dwindling very fast. In order to survive as a nation, and to
prosper in the 21st century, Bangladesh will have to shift from
an agrarian economy to an industrial economy. Consequently, the
power generation will have to increase drastically to achieve
that goal. Electrification of the whole country should be taken
as the top most priority. According to the Report of the Task
Forces on Bangladesh Development Strategies for the 1990s, as s
of 1991, 73.1% of the total energy consumption comes from
biomass fuel, such as agricultural residues, tree residues, fuel
wood, and dung. The use of biomass is not only an ineffective
means of energy generation, it is also extremely detrimental to
the environment. For instance, the forest cover in Bangladesh
has been reduced from 15.6% to 13.4% between 1973 and 1987.
According to some reports, the present forest cover is less than
9%. The decrease in forest cover contributes, among other
adverse affects on the environment, to the increase in flooding
propensity. Therefore, I believe, a drastic improvement of the
power sector is an absolute prerequisite for the overall
development of the country.
To
meet the growing demands of electricity in the domestic and
industrial sectors, Bangladesh will have to come up with a plan
for massive production of power. The country is not self reliant
on energy production. As of 1983-84, imported fuels (petroleum
and coal) accounted for 44% of primary commercial energy supply
and required about 22% of the country's export earnings. The
dependence on exported oil eventually will create uncertainty.
According to a recent report in the Scientific American (March
1998), the global production of conventional oil will probably
begin to decline within next 10 years. Bangladesh needs to
reduce its dependency on foreign oil gradually, while explore
the feasibility of developing alternative sources of energy.
The
prospect of using natural gas to generate electricity is pretty
bright for Bangladesh. In a recent article published in the
Daily Star on June 4, 1999, Nuruddin Mahmud Kamal (ex-chairman
of the PDB) mentioned that the amount of proven reserve of
natural gas in Bangladesh is 10.47 trillion cubic feet (TCF).
According to the Report of the Task Forces on Bangladesh
Development Strategies for the 1990s, the data on natural gas
usage in 1989 indicated that about 150 billion cubic feet of gas
is used annually, of which 6% and 45% are used for domestic and
power generation, respectively. The usage of gas by the domestic
sector is very low, but is increasing at a rate of 12%. Only a
fraction of Bangladesh population living in major cities has the
access to gas. An increase in domestic usage of gas will help
cutting back on the use of biomass fuel, which accounts for 73%
of total energy consumption of the country.
The
amount of electricity production will have to increase
drastically, should Bangladesh decides to bring all her citizens
under a national electric grid, and to increase industrial
activities. The natural gas can be used to produce more
electricity. The natural gas burns cleaner than oil and causes
less damage to the environment. Fuel derived from natural gas
using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis creates fewer emissions of
carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulates compared to
reformulated diesel. Research is underway to convert natural gas
to liquid form. One research group in Canada, CANMET Energy
Technology Center, made progress in converting natural gas into
liquid form that is usable in cars. Another group of researchers
in Syntroleum Corporation in Tulsa, USA, has developed a way to
convert gas into liquid fuels using blown air. When these
methods of gas conversion into liquid fuels become readily
available in the future, Bangladesh will be able to rely on its
own gas to meet most of the power needs.
There
have been lots of talks in the press recently about the
possibility of gas export from Bangladesh to India. Apparently,
some foreign companies and donor organizations are keen on the
idea of exporting gas from Bangladesh. According to Nuruddin
Mahmud Kamal, currently about 400-430 million cubic feet (MMCF)
of gas is supplied per day for electricity generation. At this
rate of consumption of gas only for the electricity generation
(which uses 45% of the total gas consumption), the gas reserve
will last 60 to 65 years. In other words, the total reserve of
gas will last about 27 years when all other sectors of gas usage
(fertilizer, industry, domestic, etc.) are considered. As
mentioned earlier, only an insignificant fraction of population
in Bangladesh currently uses gas for domestic needs. In
addition, the amount of gas consumption will increase
drastically should Bangladesh decides to produce more
electricity to meet increased demands in the power and
fertilizer sectors. If the rate of consumption increases by five
folds during the next 15 years, as envisioned by experts, then
the gas reserve will last less than a decade at the best. It is
worth mentioning that about 10% of annual energy needs of the
USA comes from natural gas, which (18 TCF) is more than the
total proven reserve of Bangladesh (10.47 TCF). It is very clear
that under no circumstances Bangladesh should consider exporting
gas.
Other
possible means of alternative sources of energy include wind
power, hydroelectric power, tidal power, solar power, and
nuclear power. Generation of electricity using wind requires
high wind speed and available open space. Valleys within
mountains can funnel winds at high speed, and are suitable
locations for wind turbines that can generate electricity. Parts
of Chittagong and Hill Tracts might be feasible for generation
of electricity using wind power.
Despite
abundance of surface water, the potential for hydroelectric
power is limited at best. The Kaptai hyrdoelectric station is
the only major power generating facility in the country.
Building of the Kaptai dam in the early 1960s caused inundation
of localities around the reservoir, which led to uprooting of
many indigenous people, as well as to confrontation between the
victims and the government. Because of low terrain and high
population density, the prospect of developing hydroelectric
power is not environmentally feasible in other parts of the
country.
Generation
of electricity using tidal power is very similar to
hydroelectric power. Tidal channels are dammed off and tidal
water is forced to pass through a narrow gate to which a turbine
is connected. The direction of the turbine can be changed to
allow both incoming flood tide and outgoing ebb tide to work on
the turbine. However, development of tidal power causes problems
to navigation. Siltation behind dams also limits the life of
operation. Since most tidal channels are used for navigation in
Bangladesh, generation of electricity using tidal power will
have to be limited to isolated channels inside the Sundarbans
area.
Solar
power uses sun's energy to produce electricity. Solar energy is
plentiful in Bangladesh. Generation of electricity using solar
power is environmentally feasible. Development of solar power
should be a top priority for Bangladesh in the 21st century.
Most of these alternative sources of energy discussed earlier
are still more costly compared to the energy produced by
conventional methods. However, with an increase in energy
demands and with an invent of more efficient technologies in the
future, the production costs and price will decline. To meet the
increasing demands of energy, Bangladesh should also consider
developing nuclear power as the sources of future energy.
To
meet the world's energy demand in the future, further research
and development of the nuclear energy will continue throughout
the world. Many countries in North America and Europe heavily
rely on nuclear energy. For example, France uses up to 75% of
nuclear energy to meet the national demand. Canada, Germany, UK,
Sweden, USA, and Japan also use a significant amount of energy
generated by nuclear reactors. According to the Energy
Information Administration, the USA produces about 15% of its
electricity (477 billion kilowatt-hour) supply from 132 nuclear
reactors. India produces about 2% of its electricity (5.5
billion kilowatt-hours) from nine nuclear reactors.
Although
nuclear energy is very efficient, it is relatively costly. Also,
there are some risks involved in safety procedures and disposal
of waste materials generated in nuclear power plants. Occasional
accidents can be dangerous. However, "media
overreaction" and "enviroscare" against nuclear
power plants certainly play a major role in mobilizing public
opinion on this issue. Except for Chernobyl disaster, which was
caused by a faulty and outdated technology in the former Soviet
Union, and the Three Mile Island incidence in the USA, there
have not been any significant accidents associated with nuclear
power generation. Operations in all other sectors of industry
have some risks associated with accidents. For instance, the
Bhopal disaster in 1984 was caused by a chemical industry (the
Union Carbide), and was equally dangerous. The problem of
radioactive waste disposal remains an unresolved issue. As far
as the radioactive waste disposal is concerned (in the case of
fission reactors), recent studies show that clay-rich seabeds
can be suitable for disposal of such waste. The Bengal fan has
one of the highest sedimentation rates in the world and could be
one such location for burial of radioactive waste.
There
are different kinds of nuclear reactors. The most efficient type
is the "Breeder Reactor" which are not only efficient,
but also relatively safer. In addition, the nuclear fusion
reactors, as opposed to fission reactors, use heavy deuterium
and tritium (a form of hydrogen) as a source of reaction. Fusion
reactors produce water as by products--not radioactive waste
(i.e. absolutely no environmental risk is associated with them).
One gram of deuterium-tritium can generate energy equivalent to
burning 45 barrels of oils! These fusion reactors are still in
research stage, but significant strides have been made in
development of these reactors. Ditmire and others recently
reported the findings of their research at the Centennial
Meeting of the American Physical Society held in Atlanta, USA in
March, 1999. According to the report the dream of sparking
tabletop nuclear fusion has become a reality, promising not
commercial energy but a promising scientific pay off. The feat
took place on a lab bench only about 1 meter wide and 3.5 meters
long. There, scientists zapped clusters of atoms of deuterium,
or heavy hydrogen, with brief but extremely powerful laser
pulses. In addition, research is ongoing in the USA and in Japan
to develop cold fusion (i.e. at room temperature). These are all
matters of future.
We
need to adopt a power generating technology that is economically
feasible and environmentally sound. Bangladesh is not at the
leading edge of technological research. This situation gives us
an opportunity to learn from other people's mistakes. Bangladesh
needs to develop an action plan for energy production,
transmission, and supply. With the current trend of
globalization of trade and technology transfer, it will be
possible to adopt technologies that are both efficient and
environmentally feasible for Bangladesh in the 21st century.
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